Pennsylvania lawmakers are renewing a decades-old battle to raise the state’s minimum wage. The latest proposal, House Bill 1549, recently passed the House and is awaiting vote in the Senate. It would increase the minimum wage in most counties depending on their population size, while Philadelphia’s would jump to $15 immediately. Republican Sen. Dan Laughlin floated a separate plan to raise the wage to $11 an hour by 2028. A fresh look at prior EPI analyses offers a timely reminder of why these proposals continue to fall short–and why Pennsylvania’s minimum wage has remained unchanged since 2009.
Pennsylvania’s labor market is strong. Unemployment has consistently been below the national average and job growth has been steadily increasing compared to other states. However, proposals that drastically increase minimum wage threaten to upend that stability. When the $15 minimum wage proposal was first introduced in 2023, an analysis by EPI delivered a clear warning: the policy could cost Pennsylvania nearly 86,000 jobs.
These job losses would disproportionately impact certain sectors, particularly those that already operate on thin margins and rely heavily on entry level workers. The hospitality industry alone is projected to lose nearly 50,000 jobs, with restaurant and bar workers making up 84 percent of those losses.
The impact isn’t limited to one category of worker. Both tipped and non-tipped employees are expected to be affected by an increase in minimum wage. More than 31,000 tipped jobs would be lost under the proposal, along with nearly 54,000 non-tipped positions.
While some advocates argue higher wages would help working women, the reality is that these laws would likely result in far more job losses for women, counteracting any gains received by those that get to keep their positions. In fact, women make up nearly two-thirds of the projected job losses under a $15 minimum wage.
Workers ages 16 to 24 are projected to lose nearly 60,000 jobs, making up almost 70 percent of all projected losses. These are often students, part-timers, or those looking for their first experience in the job market. Pushing them out of entry-level work could have long-term consequences for career development and upward mobility.
EPI’s findings clearly illustrate that the wage hike would disproportionately affect vulnerable populations–particularly young people, women, and those relying on entry-level jobs to gain experience and advance their careers. These workers risk losing not just employment, but also the opportunity to establish themselves within the workforce.
In addition to these risks, changes to the tipped minimum wage, proposed in some versions of the legislation, could make the situation even more precarious for servers and bartenders. Research shows that raising the tipped wage often leads to reduced customer tipping, lower earnings for service staff, and increased restaurant closures.
Raising the minimum wage to $15 may appear to be a great way to support workers on the surface, but the evidence shows it could ultimately hurt the very people it intends to help. Job eliminations, reduced hours, and fewer entry-level positions would leave many struggling to find work. Lawmakers should proceed with caution to avoid unintended consequences that undermine both workers and the broader economy.