Election Day brought mixed results for minimum wage ballot measures across the country.
In Olympia, WA, residents voted against a proposed $20 minimum wage hike, which came as part of a larger package of extensive labor mandates. The vote reflects a growing awareness of the strain wage increases have placed on local businesses and their workers – particularly the fallout of skyrocketing wage hikes on the West Coast.
Olympia’s constituents and lawmakers alike previously expressed concerns about the proposed wage hike’s negative consequences ahead of the vote:
- “It will cost jobs to the city, and it will cost our residents a higher price for paying more for goods and services.” – Olympia Mayor Dontae Payne
- “The proposed changes would increase annual operating costs anywhere from $100,000 to $400,000…” – Statement from Olympia-based nonprofits such as the local YMCA and food bank
- “The people that are going to hurt the most are the smaller individuals and our workers that we employ…” – Brandon Weedon, owner of Fatso’s Bar & Grill in Olympia
Olympians were right to be concerned. Across Washington state, more than 2,000 restaurants have closed so far this year under the $16.66 statewide minimum wage rate. In Seattle, restaurant operators are struggling to stay afloat under one of the highest wage rates in the country, reaching $20.76 an hour this year. University of Washington researchers found that Seattle’s minimum wage has reduced employment and hours for local workers, while failing to reduce overall earnings gaps. Olympia voters may have also proceeded with caution due to another West Coast wage experiment – California’s $20 fast food wage that has cost the state more nearly 20,000 jobs to date.
Yet on the East Coast, the cautionary tale of wage hike consequences may not have taken hold.
Voters in Portland, ME approved a $19 minimum wage to take effect by 2028 despite warnings from local businesses. Before the vote, many small business owners voiced concerns about the financial strain such a drastic increase would impose.
- “That type of an increase over time would be something that’s unsustainable.” – Anthony Irace, president of Still a Good Cause Thrift Shop
- “Retailers and restaurant owners, galleries owners, small business owners are really going to face a crunch because of an increase in the wage.” – Peter Goldman, Portland resident
- “…The small businesses and nonprofits that are truly the backbone of our economy, that make Portland vibrant and that provide jobs and economic stability so many depend on they can not absorb this cost.” – Quincy Hentzel, chief executive officer of the Portland Regional Chamber of Commerce
- “Child care is one of the most labor-dependent industries in Maine…For many Portland families, this would mean an increase of at least $300 per month, per child.” – Tamara Gallagher, owner of The Growing Tree child care and preschool
With a minimum wage higher than those in California, New York, and D.C., Portland risks following in their footsteps — toward fewer restaurants, higher prices for customers, and fewer job opportunities for workers.
Minimum wage also gained attention in various candidate platforms this cycle.
- New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani: Mamdani ran promising to bring a $30 minimum wage to the Big Apple. This comes as New York state lawmakers recently approved a hike that would raise the city’s minimum wage to $17 per hour, and historically New York’s wage hikes have already begun to hurt restaurant employment and growth.
- Virginia Governor-elect Abigail Spanberger: Spanberger included raising Virginia’s minimum wage to $15 per hour as part of her official platform. Yet neighboring DC and Maryland provide a regional reminder: Maryland’s high wages have stagnated restaurant job growth, while D.C.’s experiment to eliminate the tip credit caused so many job losses and restaurant closures, the City Council voted to amend the city’s tip credit law. Current Governor Glenn Youngkin recently vetoed lawmakers’ attempts to raise the state’s $12.41 minimum wage up to $15.
- Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey: Frey won re-election over challengers, and in his current administration has pushed back on activists’ calls for raising the city’s minimum wage from $15.97 this year up to $20 per hour. Frey cited concerns that such drastic hikes would push local businesses to the breaking point, and recent Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis research has found the city’s recent minimum wage increases have reduced employment.
As lawmakers look to make waves on minimum wage, they would be wise to proceed with caution — and learn from the costly lessons already unfolding from coast to coast.