This week, Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) introduced legislation that would raise the federal minimum wage to $25 an hour by 2031 for large businesses, more than tripling the current federal minimum wage. The legislation would also eliminate the federal tip credit, increasing the minimum wage for tipped restaurant workers by more than 1,000%.
The proposal ignores not only decades of economic research on the consequences of minimum wage increases but also the lessons states and voters have learned in recent years.
Just last week, Oklahoma voters rejected a ballot measure that would have raised the state’s minimum wage from $7.25 to $15 an hour by a 55% to 45% margin. As EPI Executive Director Mike Saltsman wrote in the Wall Street Journal, the campaign succeeded by connecting higher wage mandates to affordability concerns. Rather than viewing a higher minimum wage as a solution to rising prices, Oklahoma voters ultimately decided the costs outweighed the promised benefits.
The Oklahoma outcome follows recent blue state rejections of minimum wage hikes: California voters rejected a $18 minimum wage ballot measure after fallout from the state’s $20 fast food wage, and Massachusetts voters rejected a $15 minimum wage ballot measure for tipped restaurant workers, both in 2024.
That concern is echoed by economists. A recent EPI survey of American economists found a majority (60%) believe a $15 minimum wage would increase the cost of living. That concern grows for proposals with higher targets: 84% of surveyed economists say proposals like Sen. Murphy’s $25 federal minimum wage would make the cost of living worse.
At the same time, the vast majority of economists agree minimum wage hikes cost jobs and hiring opportunities, especially for young and entry-level workers. In fact, most think a $25 federal wage would reduce jobs for teens (95% say so) and hospitality workers (96% say so).
These simultaneous negative impacts won’t boost affordability as advocates promise. Instead it’s a recipe for higher prices and fewer job opportunities.
Data shows this could exacerbate existing teen unemployment across the country. Nationally, roughly 14.6% of teenagers were unemployed as of May 2026, up from 13.0% this time last year.
That is driven by states with already-high state minimum wage mandates. The latest Census Bureau data shows the states with the highest teen unemployment rates also have some of the highest state and local mandates in the country. In California, nearly 1 in 4 teens can’t get a job this summer. In Maryland, which has a $15 state minimum wage and just hit $18 in Montgomery County, 1 in 5 teens can’t get a job.
Now is not the time for more than tripling the federal minimum wage. Recent elections also show voters are concerned about cost of living, but don’t see minimum wage hikes as a viable solution. In fact, they side with economists who say wage hikes could make the cost of living worse.
Congress should pay attention.