Some political strategists seem to think a $20 minimum wage is a winning campaign issue. Apparently they aren’t paying attention to what’s happening in some of the nation’s highest wage markets, like Colorado and California.
Political strategist James Carville recently penned a New York Times essay calling for a “platform of pure economic rage.” One of the key components? A $20 federal minimum wage.
It’s rage-inducing alright, based on the severe negative economic consequences playing out already in high wage places across the country.
Consider what’s happening right now in Colorado.
While the state is among the top ten highest minimum wage rates in the nation, at $14.81 an hour this year. Some of its local areas are already nearing the $20 mark.
For example, Denver began mandating a higher local wage in 2019, rising to $18.81 per hour this year (set to rise to $19.29 in January). Add in the state’s meager $3.02 tip credit for tipped restaurant workers, and the city’s full-service restaurants are feeling the strain. As these costs have climbed, restaurant closures accumulated in Denver, and full-service employment fell. According to the most recent quarterly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data, the county has shed more than 3,700 jobs since 2019.
Following in Denver’s footsteps, the City of Boulder, the rest of Boulder County, and the City of Edgewater have all since adopted their own sky-high wage mandates.
Boulder County recently embarked on a path to raise its minimum wage up to $25 per hour by 2030, and currently sits at $16.57 per hour. Business owners quickly voiced concerns that future increases were becoming unsustainable, and early data shows they were right to worry: despite seasonal employment fluctuations, BLS quarterly data shows Boulder County saw its largest seasonal employment drop since 2019, barring COVID effects.
As a result, county commissioners recently voted to abandon the $25 wage target, and are instead tying the unincorporated county’s rate to the City of Boulder’s rate ($16.82 in January 2026), which is rising but is set to grow slower than the County’s $25 plan.
State lawmakers have expressed some concern about the impact of high local wage mandates. Earlier this year, the state legislature passed a bill that allows localities with wage mandates higher than the state rates to increase the size of the tip credit. Local lawmakers from Edgewater – concerned about the impacts of its higher local mandate on the future of the city’s businesses, particularly restaurants – may be the first to act on this local option. This week, city lawmakers unanimously voted to expand the city’s tip credit from $3.02 to $4.67 — effectively keeping this year’s tipped wage rate frozen in 2026. To go into effect, the city council will have a second approval vote.
Such high wage mandates have been even more harmful in California.
The state’s recent $20 fast food wage law has wreaked havoc on restaurants, employees’ jobs, and prices for local consumers. The most recent Bureau of Labor Statistics quarterly data shows the law has cost the state nearly 20,000 lost fast food industry jobs, reduced scheduled work hours for remaining employees, and caused double-digit price hikes to date.
The devastating impacts of the law have been so front-and-center for Californians, that voters rejected a 2024 proposal to raise the state’s minimum wage from $16 to $18 per hour. This was the first time in state ballot measure history that voters rejected a minimum wage hike.
Economists have been studying the impacts of steep minimum wage hikes for decades, and the results are clear: the vast majority of economists find they cause job losses, hurt opportunities for young and entry level workers, and contribute to inflation affecting resident consumers.
But beyond the academic case for rejecting misguided minimum wage hikes, lawmakers should consider the case studies unfolding in real time across the country. Minimum wage hikes aimed for $20 or more are hurting businesses, workers, and consumers — and voters are paying attention.