The Miami Herald claims affordability is top of mind for Florida voters this election season. It also claims State Rep. Angie Nixon has the answer: a $25 minimum wage. New data, and Florida’s history of wage hikes reaching $15 an hour next month, show this will hurt Floridians, not help.
Florida’s Restaurant Growth Has Stagnated
Next month, Florida’s minimum wage is already set to hit $15 per hour, while the tipped wage climbs to $11.98. This increase is the final step of scheduled wage hikes passed by voters in 2020, which increased the state minimum wage from $8.56 per hour in 2020.
In 2015, year-over-year restaurant employment growth was 5.5%. According to the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics quarterly data, that rate has now slowed to 0.4%, the lowest year-over-year growth in over a decade.
Research has shown that wage hikes of this magnitude can come with significant repercussions for workers. A Journal of Labor Economics study found that ‘Fight for $15’-era wage hikes from 2011 to 2019 already cost roughly a quarter million jobs among teens and other entry-level workers, and economists expect more of the same. In a recent EPI survey, three-quarters of economists warned that a $15 minimum wage could reduce job opportunities, accelerate automation, and make it harder for small businesses to stay open.
A $25 Minimum Wage Will Further Hurt Florida Workers and Businesses
Despite existing evidence of wage hike harm, some lawmakers want to push wages even higher. Rep. Nixon – now running for the U.S. Senate – campaigned on supporting a $25 minimum wage for the entire country. EPI estimates Florida would be among the hardest hit by this proposal, with nearly 235,000 job losses by 2031.
The concerns aren’t just for employment, some business owners say existing wage hikes will force them to raise their prices. One local business owner in Fort Myers said amidst last year’s hike “costs will have to be made up,” including through raising prices for customers. At a time when affordability is already top of mind for Florida families, policies that put additional upward pressure on everyday costs are the last thing they need. Higher prices and fewer job opportunities are a recipe for making Florida less affordable for many.
Florida voters set the state on its path to $15 six years ago, and the final increase is now arriving as the state’s restaurant industry loses momentum. Policymakers should take note before embracing an even higher wage mandate with greater consequences.