Despite nonstop media coverage, dismal jobs reports, and vocal concerns from local operators, California Governor Gavin Newsom is still claiming the $20 fast food wage mandate has been nothing but a success. But the latest jobs report, which brought retroactive revisions to Newsom’s preferred monthly employment estimates, is indisputably bad news for the state.
The best-available quarterly data, which covers more than 95% of California establishments, shows that since Governor Newsom signed the $20 wage into law more than 19,100 jobs in the fast food industry have been lost. That represents 3.4% employment loss for the industry.
This is a striking trend that is unique to the Golden State since the law was enacted. It is more than double the rate of losses experienced by California’s other industries, and similarly double the rate of employment losses in fast food nationwide.
This is especially alarming since this data drop brought new revisions to past data releases – including the ones Newsom touted to claim the $20 fast food wage law was a success.
Here’s what happened: The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases preliminary employment estimates based on a small survey sample of businesses every month. BLS then gets quarterly data based on mandatory reporting from employers, which covers 95% or more of all establishments. They use that on-the-ground quarterly data to revise previously-released estimates to more accurately reflect reality.
With the new data revisions, even Newsom’s preferred monthly data sources reflect the truth: The $20 fast food wage mandate has caused significant employment losses since it was signed into law in September 2023.
Looking at the best-available government data trends makes the situation crystal clear: California’s fast food minimum wage experiment has failed workers.
Unless lawmakers take action, California’s fast food wage will continue the state’s fast track to more job losses and unintended consequences.