As 2025 comes to a close, states and cities are already gearing up for a new wave of minimum wage proposals that could negatively impact local economies in the year ahead. From coast to coast, policymakers are pushing ambitious mandates that go far beyond what most regions have ever attempted.
In many cases, these proposals come even as government data shows clear signs of strain from existing wage mandates already on the books.
Here’s what’s coming down the pipeline as we head into 2026.
California: A $30 Minimum Wage for Los Angeles County Ahead of 2028 Olympics
In California, labor groups are urging the Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors to adopt a $30 minimum wage for unincorporated areas of the county (currently under a $17.28 hourly minimum wage). The push mirrors the $30 mandate that the LA City Council approved earlier this year for hotel and airport workers.
The state doesn’t have to look far for a foreshadowing of what these sky-high proposals could bring to L.A. Following California’s $20 fast-food minimum wage implemented in April 2024, the state saw nearly 20,000 job losses in the industry, and teen unemployment now ranks among the highest in the nation. California voters are catching on to these consequences, and in 2024, rejected a 2024 ballot measure to raise the minimum wage statewide up to $18 per hour.
Critics warn a jump to $30 would deepen the closures and employment declines already hitting the hospitality sector, risking a situation where Los Angeles enters the 2028 Olympics with fewer hotels, fewer workers, and far less economic resilience.
Virginia: Revisiting $15
Virginia lawmakers are once again weighing a proposal to raise the statewide minimum wage to $15 an hour by 2028, mirroring a measure that passed last session but was ultimately vetoed by Gov. Glenn Youngkin.
Virginia also has nearby examples of what high wage mandates could cause. In neighboring Washington, D.C., a series of steep regular minimum wage hikes and attempts to eliminate the city’s tip credit elimination contributed to waves of restaurant closures and job losses. It got so bad, the City Council recently voted to reverse course and protect part of the city’s tip credit. Lawmakers should be careful to avoid similar mistakes in the Commonwealth.
Maryland: A Push for the Nation’s Highest Minimum Wage
Maryland may be gearing up for one of the most drastic wage hikes on the East Coast. Anti-tip credit activists at One Fair Wage are pushing for a statewide $25 minimum wage, which would be the highest in the nation, while also eliminating the tip credit.
The state already has a $15 minimum wage on the books, and the restaurant industry is still struggling to adapt to higher labor costs. The state has also seen several attempts in recent years to eliminate the tip credit, all of which have failed in the state legislature (as well as in County Councils for similar local proposals).
Local businesses warn that jumping to $25 would raise consumer prices, squeeze already thin margins, reduce hiring, and accelerate the shift toward automation. With the restaurant industry already grappling with job losses from an already aggressive wage floor, lawmakers and voters should consider whether Maryland can absorb another major increase without deeper damage to its restaurant industry. The consequences of eliminating the tip credit have already played out in neighboring Washington, D.C., and West Coast states like California have slashed tens of thousands of jobs under a $20 wage for fast food workers and even higher rates for workers in some cities.
Massachusetts: Higher Tipped Wages and Mandatory Gratuity Proposals
Even Massachusetts is poised for a heated debate next session.
One proposed bill would raise the state minimum wage from $15 to $20 an hour and nearly double the tipped wage from $6.25 to $12. Restaurant owners and servers alike worry that raising the base pay for tipped workers could reduce tipping overall, ultimately leaving many workers with less income despite higher hourly rates. Another proposal would require restaurants to impose a 19% minimum gratuity on parties of four or more during what each city defines as “peak restaurant season.”
The last time the minimum wage was raised in Massachusetts, it was part of a sweeping legislative deal called the “grand bargain” among legislators and members of business and labor groups. More recently, a 2024 ballot measure to eliminate the Bay State’s tip credit was rejected by nearly two-thirds of voters.
Past experiments with large wage increases and eliminating the tip credit are clear: drastic wage hikes cause lost jobs for employees, higher prices for consumers, and higher likelihood of closure for local businesses. Add in tip credit elimination, and risk magnifying these impacts for the local restaurant industry. The majority of American labor economists agree: such high wage floors make inflation worse, cut jobs especially for entry-level and younger workers, and force businesses to turn to automation.
With so many high stakes proposals on deck, states risk repeating the costly lessons already visible in places like California and Washington, D.C. Lawmakers across the country would be wise to consider the early warning signs coming from these regions before doubling down on even more aggressive wage mandates in 2026.