Arlington, Va. – With dozens of states, cities, and counties set to raise their minimum wages in 2026, the Employment Policies Institute (EPI) is warning workers, employers, and policymakers to brace for the consequences. The nonprofit research group is pointing to the latest research showing that minimum wage hikes kill jobs while reducing employment opportunities for young people and entry-level employees.
The forthcoming study — co-authored by economists Jeffrey Clemens and Michael Strain — was recently accepted for publication in the prestigious Journal of Labor Economics. According to the paper, large Fight for $15-inspired increases in minimum wages from 2011 – 2019 — including those in New York, California, and Washington, D.C. — reduced employment rates among individuals with low levels of experience and education by more than 2.5 percentage points. View the accepted version of the study here, subject to final editing.
EPI estimates that over that time period, that translates to roughly a quarter of a million jobs for young workers across the states included in the analysis.
The findings add to years of EPI original research and analysis documenting the devastating effects of irresponsible wage hikes.
“The final story can now be written on the Fight for $15 experiment: It backfired on tens of thousands of less-experienced workers,” said Rebekah Paxton, research director at EPI. “This new study confirms what the vast majority of economists, workers, and businesses have known for years. Steep wage hikes kill jobs, reduce employment opportunities, and shutter businesses.”
Minimum wage increases scheduled for 2026 include:
- Washington, D.C. up to $18.40/hour (estimated based on inflation)
- Washington (state) up to $17.13/hour
- Connecticut up to $16.94/hour
- California up to $16.90/hour
For a full list of the 22 states and over 80 localities scheduled to raise wages in 2026, see EPI’s chart here.
Key Findings from Clemens and Strain Study:
- Large statutory minimum wage changes over 2011 – 2019 caused an employment rate decline of -2.65 percentage points.
- For lower-skilled individuals (i.e. individuals aged 16-25 with less than a completed high school education), that decline grows to -3.4 percentage points.
- When looking at longer-term effects on employment, these impacts get worse over time:
- For lower-skilled employment, wage hikes through 2015 caused an employment rate decline of -1.5 percentage points. For wage hikes through 2019, the lower-skilled employment rate drops by -4.2 percentage points.
- For younger workers (aged 16 to 21), wage hikes through 2015 caused an employment rate decline of -1.2 percentage points. For wage hikes through 2019, younger workers’ employment rate drops by -2.3 percentage points.