Lawmakers are once again pushing to raise Ohio’s minimum wage to $15. Proposals like this are nothing new to the state. A similar push in 2024 unraveled into what state officials called a “goat rodeo of a campaign,” reinforcing that a $15 wage mandate faces an uphill battle in the state.
But, a recent report from Policy Matters Ohio attempts to revive the campaign, suggesting a $15 wage would come with minimal consequences.
The report ignores a growing body of evidence pointing to significant economic tradeoffs.
FACT: A $15 minimum wage would cost tens of thousands of jobs.
Ohio began increasing its minimum wage, tied to the inflation rate, almost two decades ago. The statewide rate now reaches $11.00, including a $5.50 tipped wage. While the policy was designed to keep pace with rising costs, it places increasing pressure on employers in addition to other spiking costs.
The latest federal employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics highlights a troubling shift in the restaurant industry. After years of consistent pre-pandemic growth, Ohio restaurant employment has turned negative in 2025, even as employment in all private industries in the state remained positive.
An increase from the current $11 minimum wage to $15 would only accelerate these challenges, putting even more jobs at risk in an industry already losing momentum. In fact, an EPI analysis estimates that a $15 minimum wage in the state could result in more than 63,000 lost jobs and roughly $151 million in reduced state earnings.
FACT: There will be fewer opportunities for workers.
Though the promise of higher pay seems appealing, the reality is that higher wage mandates can reduce opportunities for employees and new workers trying to enter the workforce.
To soften the blow of increased labor costs, employers often cut back on hiring, reduce hours, or limit overtime and shift pick up. Workers who remain employed see fewer scheduled hours, offsetting gains from a higher hourly wage. Evidence from California underscores this tradeoff. After the state implemented a $20 fast-food minimum wage, workers lost up to 250 hours of work, roughly equal to seven weeks.
These impacts are not felt evenly across the workforce. Younger and less-experienced workers tend to be hit the hardest by large wage hikes. Research on “Fight for $15”–-style wage increases found employment rates among individuals with low levels of experience and education reduced by more than 2.5 percentage points after the wage hikes were implemented.
FACT: Higher labor costs will result in price increases.
While the report suggests higher minimum wages have little effect on consumers, the reality is that restaurants are often forced to pass these costs on through higher menu prices or added service charges.
Decades of economic research back this up. One study found that every $1 increase in the minimum wage is associated with roughly a 5.5% increase in prices. These effects are not just theoretical. In California, fast-food prices jumped more than 13% in the year following the state’s increase to $20 for fast-food workers.
This is a predictable response, and its effects ripple outward. As businesses adjust to spiking labor expenses ,the broader cost of living climbs alongside it – making food, rent, and everyday goods more out of reach for working Americans.
In the end, the intended benefits of wage hikes can be offset as everyday expenses climb for the very people they aim to help.
Conclusion
Ohio’s economy is already showing signs of strain in key industries like restaurants, where employment has softened in recent years. That should give lawmakers pause. Moving forward with a steep wage mandate risks accelerating labor market declines, resulting in fewer jobs, less hours, and reduced opportunities for workers.