A recent report by a left-leaning think tank claims raising Oklahoma’s minimum wage would benefit public safety, predicting there would be 7,000 fewer crimes annually. The proposed solution is a measure currently set to appear on the 2026 ballot that would more than double the state’s current minimum wage ($7.25 per hour) up to $15 per hour.
Economic studies show a $15 minimum wage won’t boost safety, and instead might endanger it.
What the Report Gets Wrong
While the report claims that a $15 minimum wage would reduce crime and incarceration, its conclusions rely on assumptions in a mathematical model rather than real-world data. The authors borrow findings from a handful of secondary studies, including an undergraduate thesis, and simply apply those relationships to Oklahoma’s crime statistics without replicating or testing. Most critically, the report overlooks the demonstrated negative effects of higher minimum wages, which other research shows are central to explaining increases in crime among young people. By ignoring job losses and reduced opportunities caused by minimum wage hikes, the analysis produces an overly optimistic picture that stands in stark contrast to the best available evidence.
What Other Data-Based Research Shows
In contrast, a comprehensive peer-reviewed National Bureau of Economic Research study examined nearly two decades of national crime and labor market data and found “no evidence” that raising minimum wages reduces the number of arrests. In fact, they find:
- Minimum wage hikes increase property crime arrests among 16 to 24 year olds.
- Minimum wage hikes don’t reduce overall crime, instead, they raise petty crimes among “idle” teens who cannot get a job without lowering crime among working adults.
- U.S. Census Bureau data shows this effect is likely due to increased job losses and reduced employment opportunities caused by higher wage mandates.
- A $15 dollar minimum wage could impose crime-related costs of nearly $2.5 billion nationwide.
Another study by Boston College economists as well as prior EPI analysis has also analyzed the link between minimum wages and crime, showing how steep wage hikes can backfire by reducing access to jobs for young people and fueling delinquency.
This concurs with an even larger body of economic research finding that minimum wage hikes result in employment losses. In fact, an EPI survey of 160 labor economists found three-fourths believe these job loss impacts are even more significant for younger, entry-level workers. Additional research by Miami and Trinity University economists has found that for Oklahoma, a $15 minimum wage could cost the state over 12,000 jobs for residents.
Raising the minimum wage should not be viewed as a public safety solution. Far from reducing crime, the evidence indicates that large mandated wage hikes risk making the problem worse by cutting off pathways into the workforce for the very workers they are supposed to help. Oklahoma voters should look at the best available data, which shows that minimum wage hikes hurt young workers’ job prospects and can increase criminal activity, rather than reduce it.