Minimum wage campaigns faced significant pushback this year as efforts to impose higher wage mandates flopped in several states and localities.
In Oklahoma, voters struck down a proposal that would have increased the state’s minimum wage to $15 per hour, recognizing the potential fallout for their communities. In Chicago, the City Council voted to delay the city’s elimination of the tip credit after restaurants raised concerns about rising labor costs and shrinking opportunities for workers.
Despite an abundance of economic research showing the negative consequences of these types of minimum wage increases, lawmakers are still pushing for wage hikes that could affect a variety of state and local jurisdictions in 2027.
A handful of states and localities have active or pending legislation that calls for increases up to $30 per hour:
- New York City, NY proposed increasing the city’s minimum wage to $30 in March 2026. The legislation remains pending, but the push has support from Mayor Zohran Mamdani, who campaigned on raising the city’s minimum wage to $30 by 2030 despite recent job losses in the city’s restaurant industry.
- Pennsylvania passed H.B. 2189, which would raise the minimum wage to $15 per hour by 2029. The bill is currently stalled in the Senate, where previous wage hike efforts have also failed to advance. This marks the third time in recent years the House has passed legislation to raise the minimum wage without it becoming law. With Governor Josh Shapiro continuing to call for a $15 minimum wage, another wage fight could emerge in 2027. EPI estimates show the proposal could cost the state 86,000 jobs.
Several other wage fights could carry into 2027 through ballot campaigns, local ordinances, and ongoing legal challenges:
- Alameda County, CA proposed a $30 per hour minimum wage for unincorporated parts of the county. The Board of Supervisors recently opted to study the proposal rather than place it on the November 2026 ballot. The study found the proposal could cost the county roughly $33 million annually. If the proposal does not appear on a special election ballot in 2027, the next scheduled opportunity would be in March 2028.
- Washington, DC’s Initiative 87 would increase the minimum wage to $25 per hour by 2029 and eliminate the tip credit by 2031. Organizers failed to collect enough signatures in time for the 2026 ballot, but the campaign is far from over. Supporters are now targeting a potential 2027 special election, renewing the District’s wage fight even after widespread restaurant closures and thousands of full-service restaurant jobs were lost following the implementation of Initiative 82.
- Lincoln, NE approved an ordinance maintaining a $15 per hour minimum wage for youth workers and allowing future increases tied to inflation rather than the state’s 1.75 percent annual cap. The ordinance quickly landed the city in court after Nebraska Attorney General Mike Hilgers sued to block it, arguing that state law preempts Lincoln’s requirements. A judge has temporarily blocked the ordinance while the lawsuit proceeds, leaving the dispute unresolved heading toward 2027.
- Omaha, NE passed a similar ordinance requiring employers to maintain a $15 minimum wage for youth workers and tying future increases to inflation. Nebraska Attorney General Mike Hilgers also sued Omaha, arguing the ordinance conflicts with state law. With legal challenges now pending over wage ordinances in Nebraska’s two largest cities, the battle over who controls minimum wage policy in the state could extend into 2027.
Other aggressive wage proposals failed to cross the finish line in 2026, but that may not be the last lawmakers see of them:
- Maryland’s proposals to increase the minimum wage from $18 per hour to $25 per hour failed during the 2026 legislative session, but local leaders have indicated the proposals could return next year. Earlier in the year, EPI testified on the harmful impacts of Maryland’s proposed wage hikes, pointing to the effects of neighboring D.C.’s tip credit elimination as an example.
- Illinois lawmakers proposed S.B. 3821/H.B. 5367 to increase the state minimum wage to $27 per hour by 2032 and phase out the tip credit. The legislation died in committee, but similar proposals could return in 2027. The proposal piggybacks off of Chicago’s tip credit elimination law, which the City Council recently voted to delay scheduled wage hikes due to the significant negative impacts on local restaurants.
- Rhode Island proposals to increase the state minimum wage to $20 and $24 per hour failed during the 2026 legislative session. Similar proposals could return in 2027.
- Vermont introduced H.173 to raise the minimum wage for fast food workers to $20 per hour starting in January 2027.
- Ohio’s previous $15 per hour constitutional amendment failed to qualify for the 2024 ballot, but wage activists have continued to signal interest in reviving the effort. While the timing of the campaign remains unclear, another ballot push would reopen a wage fight that supporters have yet to win in the Buckeye State.
If 2026 has shown anything, it is that steep minimum wage hikes come with tradeoffs. EPI analysis this year has highlighted the negative impacts on affordability, job losses, and mounting pressure on restaurants and other small businesses that are facing significant wage mandates.
As these battles move into 2027, lawmakers will once again have to weigh promises of higher wages against decades of evidence showing the consequences these policies can have for the workers and businesses they are intended to help.