Affordability was a defining issue in this year’s elections, and minimum wage hikes have once again emerged as a misguided solution to rising costs. With Democrats gaining control of Congress and several state legislatures like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, lawmakers have announced that raising the minimum wage across the country is a top priority for 2027.
At the federal level, Sen. Bernie Sanders, likely incoming chair of the Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions (HELP) Committee, has already signaled his intention to pursue a $20 federal minimum wage. Sanders will have willing allies in the newly Democratic-controlled House and Senate, where many lawmakers have also expressed support for raising the federal minimum wage.
Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA) advocated for a $25 federal minimum wage, echoing legislation introduced earlier this year. Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker claimed an “easy way” for new Congressional lawmakers to get started would be to pass a federal minimum wage hike.
Even sitting lawmakers have already pushed a minimum wage hike agenda going into the new legislative session. Recently, Arizona Sen. Ruben Gallego announced his “middle class” affordability plan, with a foundational proposal of raising the federal minimum wage to $20, among other potentially harmful business mandates.
Those threats don’t stop in Washington, D.C. Across the country, newly elected Democratic lawmakers are poised to advance costly minimum wage hikes.
In Wisconsin, Governor-elect David Crowley campaigned on raising the state’s minimum wage to $15 an hour. Now that Democrats have flipped control of both chambers of the state legislature, a wage hike proposal could more easily advance. Meanwhile, in Pennsylvania, Democrats secured control of both chambers of the state legislature for the first time in decades, removing a key obstacle that stalled previous attempts at a minimum wage hike. Governor Josh Shapiro has already voiced his intention to raise the state’s minimum wage to $15 an hour, pledging to make it the first bill he signs into law.
However, economic research suggests these wage hikes are far from a winning solution for workers and could make the affordability crisis even worse.
A recent EPI survey of 166 economists found widespread opposition to large minimum wage hikes. Nearly three-quarters opposed raising the federal minimum wage to $15 an hour or more, while 96% opposed proposals of $20 an hour or higher. Economists also warned that large wage mandates could lead to a higher cost of living due to businesses raising prices, fewer job opportunities for young and inexperienced workers, increased automation, and greater challenges for small businesses.
These risks are far from hypothetical. EPI’s economic modeling projects millions of jobs at risk.
A federal minimum wage increase to $15 an hour could cost the country 658,000 jobs or more. More aggressive proposals to raise the federal minimum wage between $20 and $25 could result in the loss of 2 million to 5 million jobs nationwide, with younger workers and the restaurant industry bearing the brunt of the impact.
As newly elected lawmakers prepare to advance their minimum wage agendas, they risk making the very affordability crisis they promised to address even worse. Rather than helping workers get ahead, these costly mandates could leave millions with fewer job opportunities and higher prices.